AGP Executive Report

Market Watch: PepsiCo beat third-quarter revenue forecasts, but North American demand was soft: Frito-Lay volumes were flat, beverage volumes fell 2%, and Canadian sales declined. Farm Economics: Canadian farmland values rose 3.8% in the first half of 2026, though FCC says higher costs, tighter margins and trade uncertainty are making buyers more cautious. Restaurant Scene: Vancouver’s AnnaLena has earned the city’s first two Michelin stars, a milestone for Canada’s dining scene. Hospitality: Tipping is down across Canada, adding pressure on restaurant and hotel workers. Food System: Canadians still trust the food system, but uncertainty is growing as the sector faces trade and cost pressures.

Industry Outlook: Canadian food manufacturers’ sales rose 4% in the first half of 2026, while beverage sales fell 3%, according to Farm Credit Canada. Trade barriers and global conflicts are adding costs, putting pressure on margins and pushing businesses to diversify markets and invest in productivity. Food Distribution: Ottawa plans a $1-billion Food-Link Fund to support infrastructure for moving food across Canada. Consumer Confidence: Canadians still view the food system positively, but new research finds growing uncertainty about its future. Agriculture Policy: B.C.’s proposed changes to allow more food processing on protected farmland are on hold during the election, leaving the industry waiting for clarity. Restaurant Scene: Vancouver’s AnnaLena became the city’s first two-Michelin-star restaurant, while local restaurateurs debate what Michelin recognition means for the wider dining scene. Delivery: Instacart and Skip are teaming up to expand delivery options in Canada. Hospitality: Atlantic Canadian hospitality workers say declining tips are squeezing their income.

Plant-based pressure on fast food: Mercy For Animals’ new “Patty Battles” report says McDonald’s offers plant-based burgers abroad but not in the U.S., urging the chain to expand options at home. Restaurant value squeeze: A report on McDonald’s U.S. deal push suggests $5 meals and $6 combos aren’t winning back customers, with visits and growth still under pressure. Canadian food manufacturing resilience: Farm Credit Canada says food sales rose in H1 2026 (grain/oilseeds up 28%), while beverage sales fell, led by distilleries down 12%. Protein trend in the dairy aisle: Cottage cheese consumption in Canada jumped 50% from 2022–25, with production up 75% in early 2023 vs early 2026. Delivery convenience expands: Instacart and Skip broaden each other’s networks in Canada, letting shoppers order restaurants and groceries without switching apps. Tipping fatigue hits hospitality: An Angus Reid/Actual survey finds 60% of Atlantic hospitality workers saw tips drop, with many relying on tips for essentials. New Michelin spotlight: Vancouver’s AnnaLena earns the city’s first two-Michelin-star upgrade. Local brand milestone: Osmow’s celebrates 25 years and 250 locations, topping 50 million shawarmas sold. GLP-1 guidance watch: WHO obesity guidance for youth raises the profile of GLP-1s in limited cases, alongside lifestyle-first care.

Delivery shake-up: Skip and Instacart are teaming up in Canada, letting Skip users shop Instacart groceries and Instacart users order from Skip’s 50,000+ restaurant partners without leaving the apps. Hospitality squeeze: A new Angus Reid/Actual report says Atlantic Canada hospitality workers are feeling “tipping recession” as 60% report lower tips over two years, with 43% relying on tips for essentials. Zero-proof momentum: Canadian post-secondary alcohol use keeps sliding—down from 84.3% (2019-20) to 74.9% (2024-25)—as bars and restaurants expand non-alcoholic options. Thanksgiving costs: Dalhousie’s Charlebois estimates a traditional turkey dinner for four will hit about $35.72 this year, up ~10% from 2025. Food industry watch: USDA FAS says Canadian chicken farm prices remain stable under supply management. Dining spotlight: Vancouver’s AnnaLena just earned two Michelin stars, the city’s first two-star restaurant.

Packaging & Policy: Tetra Pak says food and beverage packaging decisions now have to juggle more than protection and cost—brands must also factor in EPR compliance, recyclability, transport optimization and carbon footprint as extended producer responsibility expands. Spirits Market Watch: US “control states” saw spirits volume down 3% in August, with double-digit drops for Canadian whisky, Scotch and brandy; only cachaça and RTD cocktails grew. Labour & Hospitality: Unifor members at Fairmont Hotel Vancouver are voting Oct. 6–7 on a strike mandate over wages, benefits, vacation and banquet staff travel benefits. Food Retail Hours (Ontario): Here’s what’s open or closed on Thanksgiving Monday in the GTA, including modified hours for grocery stores and major attractions. Restaurant/Brand Moves: Chipotle teamed up with the London Vegetable Orchestra to record a song using instruments made from fresh restaurant ingredients, turning produce into “From Ground to Sound.”

Thanksgiving Monday (GTA) Hours: Toronto-area malls and major attractions like the CN Tower, Ripley’s Aquarium, and Canada’s Wonderland are running modified schedules on Oct. 12, while grocery options such as Farm Boy (select locations) and Loblaws/Metro at specific addresses are open with adjusted hours. Convenience Store Foodservice Trend: With Canadians in a high-cost-of-living era, convenience stores are the fastest-growing foodservice channel, hitting $4.2B in the 12 months ending May 2026, driven especially by budget-conscious students shifting from QSR. Popeyes Goes Grocery in Canada: Popeyes launches a Canadian grocery debut with Biscuit Mix plus Blackened Ranch and Sweet Heat dipping sauces for home baking and game-day meals. Restaurant/Brand Expansion: Circle K is set to open new multi-brand travel centers in New York featuring Dunkin’, Wendy’s, and Papa John’s; Freddy’s signs a five-unit development deal for the Philippines with a first opening expected in 2027. Chipotle Marketing Play: Chipotle teams with the London Vegetable Orchestra to record “From Ground to Sound,” using instruments made from fresh produce.

Functional Drinks Science: A new push in Canada’s beverage world is putting clinical backing front and centre, with formulators urged to use research-supported ingredients (like L-theanine) and be transparent to keep consumer trust. Restaurant Openings & Local Food Culture: Nova Kitchen & Bar opened its North Shore location in Vancouver, bringing steakhouse-style vibes and signature cocktails to the neighbourhood. Foodservice Innovation: OiLChef won “Restaurant Solution of the Year” at the 2026 Restaurant & Takeaway Innovation Expo for tech aimed at improving commercial frying performance and extending oil life. Community Food & Hospitality: Nanaimo’s long-running MGM Restaurant is closing after 42 years, with the final day set for Oct. 11. Trade & Industry Events: Toronto Trade Show 2027 (May 22–23, Markham) was launched to connect Canadian buyers with Chinese manufacturers and supply chains. Tourism & Dining Spend: A study on the Adirondacks highlights rising restaurant spending and longer stays—useful context for Canadian operators watching shoulder-season demand.

Restaurant & Tech Awards: OiLChef won Restaurant Solution of the Year at the 2026 Restaurant & Takeaway Innovation Expo, spotlighting its commercial deep-frying tech aimed at improving performance and extending cooking-oil life. Local Food Business Closures: Nanaimo’s long-running MGM Restaurant is closing after 42 years, with the final day set for Oct. 11. Foodservice Industry Finance: Restaurant Brands International (Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, Firehouse Subs) shares are down about 11% recently, with dividend yield and Tim Hortons’ same-store sales slowdown flagged as key risks. Tourism & Spending (Food Demand): A study on the Adirondacks finds visitors staying longer and spending more, with restaurant spending up sharply—useful context for Canadian operators watching travel patterns. Community Food Culture: Greater Victoria’s Placemaking Network delivered its 150,000th book to a little free library, reinforcing the kind of neighbourhood culture that often supports local cafés and eateries.

Restaurant Recognition: LORE in Collingwood (opened May) landed on the Michelin Guide Toronto and Region’s Recommended list, with chef Jeremy Austin calling it “surreal” that the guide is reaching beyond Toronto. Local Food & Community: Mennonite Heritage Village volunteers were celebrated at a spring/summer appreciation night featuring dessert and trivia, with the Livery Barn Restaurant providing refreshments. Hot Sauce Spotlight: Kitchener’s Ginger Goat is the first and only Canadian maker of Pepper X hot sauce, launching three new products built around the superhot’s citrussy heat. Travel + Food Tourism (Atlantic Canada): Bouctouche, N.B. is pitched as a scenic East Coast stop for beaches, lighthouses, and seafood-focused outdoor fun. Quebec Eats & Culture: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu is framed as a lively Quebec city stop between Montreal and the U.S., with a strong dining scene and maple-syrup appeal. Food Industry Tech (Canada): A subscriber-only column argues the food supply chain is learning to price with AI, while consumers still shop with a calculator.

AI & Pricing in Food: Ottawa Sun columnist flags how AI is starting to shape pricing across Canada’s food supply chain, but says shoppers are still doing the math themselves. Michelin Recognition Beyond Toronto: Collingwood’s LORE (and its GM award) lands on the Michelin Recommended list for Toronto and Region—an unusual win for a restaurant outside the city core. Hot Dog Upgrade at the Bell Centre: Montreal’s famed Bell Centre hot dog gets a bigger, juicier makeover for the 2026-27 NHL season, with Groupe CH switching to a Bar-B-Q variety while keeping the same supplier mix. Local Hot Sauce Spotlight: Kitchener’s Ginger Goat debuts Pepper X–based hot sauces, including Miso Maple Madness, Hot Honey and La Cabra Loca, built around the pepper’s citrus heat. Restaurant & Community Food Culture: RISE Alberni’s literacy picnic leans on potluck cooking and community support, with newcomers to Canada highlighted as a key focus. Travel Boycott Ripple (Food Tourism Angle): Reports say Canada-linked U.S. travel slowdowns are widening after tariff fights and rhetoric—bad news for cross-border tourism spending that often props up restaurants.

Hot Dog Makeover at Bell Centre: Groupe CH has upgraded the NHL-season hot dog at Montreal’s Bell Centre—bigger and more flavourful—by switching to a Bar-B-Q variety from Lafleur while keeping the $5.25 price point. Local Food & Community Fundraising: Heritage Co-op raised over $18K for curling clubs and a skating rink through Fuel Good Day 2026, using fuel purchases, beverage sales, and community BBQs to support local recreation. Northern Retail Upgrade: Iqaluit’s Northmart completed three years of in-store renovations, adding a larger deli, wider checkout stations, new clothing and furniture displays, and refreshed KFC/Tim Hortons takeout areas. Food Industry Tech & Operations: QCI announced AI-powered revenue forecasting for casino resorts, aiming to link gaming and hospitality decisions with hotel, RV, and food-and-beverage planning. Supply Chain/Logistics: YMX says computer-vision yard tools helped connect missing cheese shipments to a specific truck and driver, supporting a claim for about $60,000 in recovered product. Food, Drink, and AI Friction: A report highlights how customers are increasingly bringing AI-generated claims into restaurants and stores—creating new service headaches when staff must correct chatbot mistakes.

Restaurant Footprint Shake-Up (U.S.): Pizza Hut, Papa John’s and Wendy’s are among chains cutting hundreds of locations in 2026 as consumers stay cautious and sales soften. Canadian Business & Food Retail: Sargento completed its acquisition of La Terra Fina, expanding into grocery/club deli with a new Deli Business Unit. Canadian Growth in Chicken Fast-Casual: Honestly Good Chicken Fingers inked a joint venture with Serruya Private Equity to push the brand across Canada, the U.S., Asia and the Middle East. Hospitality Tech for Food Ops: QCI rolled out AI-powered revenue forecasting for casino resorts, tying hotel, RV and food-and-beverage decisions to pricing and planning. Community Food Fundraiser (Canada): An Alberta Nepalese restaurant is teaming with Rotary for an Oct. 3 trek-and-momo fundraiser supporting ShelterBox flood relief. Food Safety/Policy (Canada-linked): AIFPA backed front-of-pack nutrition labelling, arguing serving-size-based frameworks should reflect real consumption patterns.

U.S.-Canada Trade: Washington’s ban on several Canadian imports—including alcohol, molasses, motorcycles and some dairy—kicked in Sept. 29, adding pressure to prices and cross-border businesses as the tariff fight escalates. Food Policy & Health: Thanksgiving is getting reshaped by GLP-1s (Ozempic/Wegovy and others), with Canadians reporting appetite changes, digestive side effects and added social friction at family meals. Restaurant & Retail: Lewiston’s The Silo Restaurant won “Best Milkshake” in a local readers’ vote, highlighting thick, ice-cream-based shakes served from a converted caboose. Local Food Business: Shine Baking Co. is opening its first permanent storefront in Shelburne, expanding allergy-conscious baking for customers with celiac and other dietary needs. Industry & Supply: A new report warns that boosting global biofuel production could drive deforestation and habitat loss, and may even reduce food crop output—Canada already sends over 30% of canola into renewable fuels. Canada Business Moves: Tree of Life Canada promoted leaders tied to major retail partners like Loblaw and Walmart/Costco, signaling continued push into grocery execution.

Fast-Food Expansion: Swift Current’s northeast is getting four new fast-food spots, including Carl’s Jr. (opened Aug.) plus McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Firehouse Subs under construction, adding to an already busy strip of chains. Menu Buzz: McDonald’s is bringing back the Snack Wrap in the UK after a decade, with a new black pepper mayo and a £1.99 price point. Coffee Culture: A roundup on global coffee habits highlights the U.S. as the top consumer and breaks down major supplier countries, with Colombia standing out for consumer association. Community & Food Tourism: Downtown Belleville’s “Savour the Flavour” mac-and-cheese contest returns with 17 restaurants battling for People’s Choice and Judges’ Choice, sponsored by Lactalis Canada. Hospitality Training: Niagara College and Guyana ministries discussed curricula for a Hospitality and Tourism Training Institute, including culinary arts and food & beverage services. Cafeteria Dining Trend: Samsung Welstory is rolling out client-brand menus in corporate cafeterias, including Canadian lobster with Vikings Wharf and tacos with Bear’s Taco. Safety Incident: Police say two elders died and two others were hurt in a crash at Tsawwassen Mills on Truth and Reconciliation Day.

U.S.-Canada Trade War (Food & Drink): A new U.S. import ban took effect on Canadian alcohol, dairy ingredients (including whey and molasses), and some beverages, with many everyday shoppers expecting limited holiday disruption thanks to bulk-shipment exemptions. Canadian Business Leadership: General Mills named Dana McNabb as CEO starting Jan. 1, 2027, as the packaged-food giant pushes supply-chain modernization amid pressure on sales. Sustainable Packaging: Cascades’ lithioUrb 100% recycled paperboard won a food-industry sustainability award and was a finalist in Retail Council of Canada packaging categories. Protein & Alternative Proteins: Roquette and Seaweed & Co. are backing flexitarian demand with new protein-related moves. Food Innovation in Canada: Lambton College launched a sustainable food innovation hub with RBC Foundation funding, adding paid applied research roles. Industry Tech: Meta rolled out “Muse” for small businesses, while a Toronto incident highlighted how AI agents can act on permissions in unexpected ways. Local Food Ecosystem: Ontario Agri-Food Discovery Centre opened feedback sessions to shape Canada’s first ag science centre visitor experience. Restaurant/Brand Tie-Ins: Prince St. Pizza and Xbox teamed up on a limited-edition Gears of War pizza in Toronto and the U.S.

US-Canada Trade Shock: The U.S. has started banning nearly $1B in Canadian imports, including alcoholic beverages and dairy byproducts, with the move framed as another escalation in Trump’s trade war—Canada says it won’t apologize and will defend Canadian workers and businesses. Retail & Foodservice Impact Watch: Local ripple effects are already being discussed for ingredient buyers and farm-linked supply chains, even if analysts say the immediate overall economic hit may be limited. Convenience Food Trends: 7-Eleven is leaning into National Taco Day/Taco Tuesday with deals, while a new convenience store study says 33% of surveyed c-stores now offer tacos in prepared food. Canadian Industry Outlook: Farm Credit Canada’s food and beverage summit warns Canada’s slowing population growth could cap domestic expansion, pushing companies to look abroad for growth. Business & Product News: KFC is revamping its menu in Australia with bigger, crispier chicken tenders—an example of how fried-chicken rivals are forcing faster product refresh cycles. Food Safety/Health Note: A case report describes “auto-brewery syndrome,” where gut microbes brewed alcohol after antibiotics—an unusual reminder of how gut health can affect outcomes.